By Peter Bell

The Goldilocks Strategy

For anyone who doesn’t know already, I thought I’d outline the primary vendor selection strategy utilized by most companies when selecting a website developer. It is called the Goldilocks Strategy and in over fifteen years of business, is probably the most prevalent selection strategy I’ve ever seen.

While your affability, clothing and proposal (often in that order) do go into selecting the right website developer, once the bad and the ugly (or at least the ugly) have been eliminated the buyer will then usually use a very simple algorithm for selecting the optimal vendor. It is called the Goldilocks Strategy and it works as follows . . .

They remove the lowest and highest bid and select a bid that’s “not too high” (waste of money) and “not too low” (waaaay too risky). Quite often buyers will use a bracketed Goldilocks where they already have minimum and maximum budget points in their mind and then select either the lowest price within their budget (why waste more?) or the Goldilocks provider that is right in the middle of their target range, so getting a target price range by hook or by crook is a really good idea if you want to have any chance of getting the deal.

As such the main goal of your proposal is to ensure you don’t get excluded (by saying anything you shouldn’t or by not saying anything you should) and to be pretty and credible enough that if you’re near the Goldilocks point, the eenie-meenie process is more likely to land on your beautifully bound full color tomb tome rather than the photocopied mess from the other guy (you wish!).

Some buyers also modify the Goldilocks by pre-qualifying using “the consultants test” which broadly stated is that as long as there is a nice short, readable and comprehensible summary upfront (including a pricing summary), the likelihood of success and the weight of the proposal are closely correlated! It has been proved repeatedly that this test is negatively correlated with success, but it still allows large consulting organizations to be paid a great deal of money to send inexperienced MBAs around the world to support the position of the person funding the report, so why not take advantage of it and bump up the weight of your proposals – ideally with flow diagrams of your process and full color screenshots of previously compete projects?!

Sorry all – I’m trying to figure out a mechanism for facilitating the pricing of standard, modified and custom web apps more efficiently and as I think through the success factors that drive proposals acceptance I’m getting into cynical mood :->

Anyone have any things they've found have helped them to increase the success rates of their quotes?

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Comments
Years ago I delivered (to a client that we were going to build an online Vinyl Record store) our proposal, printed in 12" X 12" paper, in a record cover, with the front page sliding in nicely so that when it was in the cover, the title etc, looked like a record.

The client loved it.

I think I shouldn't be in web-development but advertising... sounds like a lot more fun!
# Posted By Mark Drew | 1/25/07 8:22 AM
Interesting post and would have gotten me thinking much more back in the days I was consulting. I think a lot of what you discuss changes depending on the type of client you are after. See, small businesses usually have 1 (perhaps 2) people making this decision, big businesses seem to have either a 1 person researching and making recommendations with another that has final approval authority or a decision by committee. Government, Academic institutions, and not-for-profit always do by committee and in the case of the latter two, in my experience, these can get rather large and unwieldy depending on the size of the contract being awarded.

My point is, I think your strategy adjusts depending on which of these types of groups you are presenting to as each one has a different decision-making dynamic. For example, in my experience, you have a solid likelihood of competing against a "brother-in-law who does this stuff for such and such company" when dealing with businesses with a single decision maker, this isn't as big an issue on the committees.

Not sure if this compares with your experience so far, but thought I'd share mine.
# Posted By Brian Rinaldi | 1/25/07 8:28 AM
@Mark - Very cool. I founded and ran a B2B ad agency for a number of years and used to love doing stuff like that. Ended up back in technology because it was at least plausible to come up with fairly objective acceptance criteria which is almost impossible with creative. If you want to do REALLY cool creative you either need to get great clients (think boutique agencies with a name) or vertically integrate and actually sell something that you market )think Apple). Same reason I don't get involved in graphic design or (usually) copywriting any more - with code at least I have a fighting chance of getting most clients to accept the best solution for their problem space - with pure creative that's a much harder nut to crack.

@Brian - Yeah - bet this takes you back to your "Wisconsin days"! You make a GREAT point I should have addressed. Problem with frames of reference is that you sit inside them so long you start to take them for granted . . . In general my resellers specialize in selling to SMBs or autonomous departments of larger organizations that act like SMBs. I think Paul Graham nailed it when he said that most of the cost of software bought by large organizations is the cost of SELLING to large organizations. I Was primarily focused on selling to SMBs, although I've got to say that I think there is an element of Goldilocks in many vendor selection processes. Once you've jumped through all of the (potentially quite useful) selection hoops, if there are still three vendors left, I wouldn't be surprised if the middle one got more than their fair share of the projects - especially if the low bidder is surprisingly low!
# Posted By Peter Bell | 1/25/07 8:54 AM
Nice article... just one minor point though: You *may* have meant 'tome' when you in fact said 'tomb' ;-)

Jamie.
# Posted By Jamie Badman | 1/25/07 9:42 AM
A grave error indeed. My misspellings will no doubt be the death of me. :->

Thanks!
# Posted By Peter Bell | 1/25/07 9:52 AM
Amazingly, at least to me, the far and away best strategy I ever witnessed to writing a winning proposal was to share it with the client before it was complete. You may not always have a chance at this but if you can swing it review the entire proposal with the client prior to submission. They will tell you all kinds of stuff. Find out what parts make sense and which ones need to be refined before you turn in the final. The first time I saw this approach used I was dumbfounded. Of course the client will write a better proposal than you can hope to if given the chance, they know exactly what they want.

Ed.T
# Posted By Ed Tennant | 1/25/07 11:19 AM
BRILLIANT - REALLY nice hint - thanks! Done informally befor, but never consistent strategy. May change now . . .

Anyone else?!!!
# Posted By Peter Bell | 1/25/07 11:26 AM
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